Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Padma Bridge
1. Overview Padma Bridge is one of major outstanding infrastructure required for balanced economic development of Bangladesh. It is anticipated that the gross domestic product of the would increase by 2 percent once the bridge was constructed. The bridge, which would connect the southwest region with the rest of the country, could be used for the trans-Asian route; the minister said adding ââ¬Å"The Bridge will help gear up industrialisation in the region too. Environmental impact of the bridge would be assessed during the preparation of design. Government is endeavouring to start construction of the proposed Padma Bridge in 2011 to comple it by 2014. The bridge to be built at an estimated more than twenty thousand crore TK would be, the longest bridge in the country with 6. 15km length and 25m width, he added. The bridge will have four lanes and a railroad in the middle. The bridge will also have a gas transmission pipeline, power transmission line and telecommunication cable. The Jamuna Multi-Purpose Bridge Authorities (JMBA) that looked after large bridge projects, in a study in 2005 estimated that 918. 76 hectares of land would be needed to be acquired on both the sides of Padma Bridge. The land acquisition cost is estimated at 3. 2 billion taka (about 46 million U. S. dollars), said the study. According to a survey by JICA, nearly 30,000 people will lose their lands due to land acquisition for construction of the bridge. The 6. 5 km long 22-metre wide, four lane bridge on the river Padma connecting Mawa (35km south of Dhaka) in Munshiganj with Jazira in Madaripur is also likely to contribute hugely to the functioning of the Mongla Port in Bagerhat, the second seaport of the country that fails to attract cargo ships owing to poor communications. The decision to construct the bridge was taken back in 2001 but dilly-dally over selecting the construction sites delayed the process. 2. INTRODUCTION The three major rivers of Bangladesh ââ¬â the Padma, Brahmaputra-Jamuna and the Meghna divide the country into four principal regions such as north-west, north central, eastern and south-west regions. The Padma River separates the South-west region from the capital city and requires time consuming ferry crossings to major destinations. At present, transportation of passengers and freight across the river is by ferries and to a lesser extent by launches and manually-operated boats, but their services are grossly inadequate in both capacity and service level. The existing ferry services involve long and unpredictable waiting time at terminals lacking basic service facilities. They are prone to suspension orcancellation due to flood, fog and inclement weather conditions. The proposed Padma Bridge is expected to make cross-Padma transport more reliable and drastically reduce the travel time and cost across the river. The proposed bridge plans to build a multipurpose crossing with additional utilities like rail, telephone, gas and power lines across the Padma. It is designed to remove the last major physical barrier in the road connection between Dhaka and the South-west region of Bangladesh, where about one quarter of the population of Bangladesh is living. The bridge will shorten the distance from the South-west to Dhaka by 100 km and travelling time will considerably be reduced. The project is viewed as a very important infrastructure and transportation network, which will hugely facilitate social, economic and industrial development of this relatively underdeveloped region of the country. The padma Bridge will help to stimulate economic activity in the SW region by providing a reliable and rapid transport connection. It is estimated in the feasibility study that the project will increase the GDP by 1. 2% and that of South-West Region by 2. 3%. The Padma Bridge is on the Asian Highway Route A-1 and Trans-Asian Railway Route. When the railway will be effectively connected, the Padma Bridge will contribute to the multimodal international transport network for the Eastern Region of the Indian sub-continent and substantial benefit to GoB for bi-lateral cargo movement between India and Bangladesh. 3. PROJECT COMPONENTS Among the project components main bridge is by far the prime component of the project covering about 50% of the project cost. The main components of the Padma Multi-Purpose Bridge Project consist of: * A 6. 15km long two-level steel truss main bridge. (four-lane divided highway on top and single track rail on the bottom deck); * The Approach Road to the bridge consisting of a 12. 4 km four-lane divided highway and includes five minor bridges of 150~270m length over local waterways, 21 drainage box culvert and 8 local road underpasses. * Transition structures that includes the Approach Viaduct at Mawa length of 721. 50m and 756. 788m for the northbound and southbound carriageways respectively. The length of the Approach Viaduct at Janjira is 873. 250m and 797. 315m for the northbound and southbound carriageways respectively; * Bridge End Facilities on both sides of the river that includes Toll Plazas and Service Areas; * Access roads totaling about 8. 9 km and 14. 5 km of service road . * Four Resettlement villages (two on the Mawa side and two on the Janjira side). 4. MAIN BRIDGE The total length of the main bridge is 6150m and the main bridge is connected to approach viaducts on both ends and overall width of the bridge is 22. m. The main bridge is in the form of composite steel truss with two levels, railway at lower deck level and highway at upper deck level suitable for fast track construction. Longitudinally, the main truss is in the form of a continuous warren truss and the concrete roadway slab is connected to the top chord by shear stud. The railway deck comprises longitudinal steel beams spanning between lower cross beams and a concrete railway slab which is also compositely connected to the beams. The roadway slab is reinforced concrete in the transverse direction, and is a pre-stressed concrete structure in the longitudinal direction. There are 41 spans each 150 m in length optimized in the computer program. It is sub-divided into 7 continuous bridge modules, and each module is comprised of 5 or 6 spans. At the interface between adjacent modules, a movement joint is present to accommodate the movement due to various actions. The major portion of the bridge is flat (0% vertical gradient) except at the two ends the bridge level decreases with approximately 0. 5% vertical gradient to match with the adjacent approach viaducts. The horizontal alignment of the bridge consists of straight sections, curved sections with onstant radius and short transition curves. The tightest radius is found in Module 7, where the radius is 3000 metres. 5. CROSSING REQUIREMENTS The bridge is to carry the following facilities: Highway The bridge is required to carry a dual two-lane carriageway road with a design traffic speed of 100km/hr. Each carriageway shall comprise two 3. 5 meter wide traffic lanes plus a 2. 5 meter wide hard shoulder and 650mm wide median. The bridge is intended to carry motorized vehicles only. Railway Provision shall be made for future addition of a single track broad gauge railway along the bridge. The railway is proposed to be an extension of the Indian Railways Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) and is likely to be part of the Trans-Asian Railway. The design rail speed is 160km/hr for passenger trains and 125 km/hr for freight trains. Power Transmission Line The bridge will be required to carry a high voltage power transmission line with a capacity of 400kV as part of the developing power supply network in south west Bangladesh. High Pressure Gas Transmission Line A 30 inch (76 cm) diameter gas pipe is to be carried by the bridge, which is expected to operate at a pressure of. 1135 psi. The gas pipe shall be hydro tested to a pressure of 1710 psi in accordance with procedures approved by Petrobangla. The high pressure gas main shall be designed in accordance with the requirements of Petrobangla with reference to appropriate recognized international design standards such as the American 6. BRIDGE VIADUCTS The viaduct spans are separated into the approach road and the railway viaducts. The main bridge is a two level structure which required a challenging task in the arrangement of the viaducts to separate the railway from the highway and alternative options were considered during the Scheme Design Phase of the project. There are a total of four viaducts supporting the highway, two on each side of the river. The length of the approach road viaducts ranged from 720m to 875m long and consists of 38m spans. The superstructure consists of precast, pre-tensioned concrete Super-T girders which will become the first Super-T girder structure to be constructed in Bangladesh. The Super-T girder is an economical beam commonly used on highway bridges in Australia and is becoming more widespread on projects throughout Asia. The introduction of the Super-T girder to Bangladesh presents an opportunity for future use on other projects throughout the country. There is a total of two viaducts supporting the railway, one on each side of the river. The length of the railway viaducts ranged from 2. 36km to 2. 96km and consists of 38m spans similar to the approach road viaducts. The superstructure consists of precast, post-tensioned concrete I-girders. The detailed design of the viaduct structures posed some major challenges in bridge engineering specifically involving earthquakes under soil conditions highly susceptible to significant depths of liquefaction. A multi modal response spectra analysis was used to analyse and the design the viaducts for a seismic event with a return period of 475 years. This paper describes the dynamic analysis procedure and the design features of the structure to withstand these seismic events. A transition pier is located at the interface of the viaduct spans to the river spans and supports the end spans of the main bridge, the approach road viaduct structure and the railway viaduct structure. The transition pier also provided the location for the diversion of the gas pipe, power cables and telecommunication utilities located on the main bridge whilst also enclosing an access stairwell for inspection, maintenance and emergency evacuations. 7. SITE SELECTION Four alternative bridge sites were identified as alternative locations in the following areas: Site-1:Paturia-Goalundo Site-2 : Dohar-Charbhadrasan Site-3 : Mawa-Janjira Site-4 : Chandpur-Bhedarganj Four alternative locations were examined from the view points of existing transport of the project area, traffic demand forecast, preliminary river study and technical consideration in highway planning, preliminary bridge planning, environmental & social consideration. JICA study team considers site-1 and site-3 to be most advantageous for a new fixed crossing and recommends these sites for further study until Interim report. Survey Results Estimated amount of land to be acquired is almost same (about 1,250 ha ) in both cases The number of affected households / structure varies due to differences in population density Current estimate suggests:- Mawa ââ¬â Janjira 70,000 to 80,000 Paturia ââ¬â Goalundo 40,000 to 45,000 Traffic Study and Economic Analysis (Main Work Items) 1) Traffic Surveys (Traffic counts, OD Survey) 2) Establishment of Future Socioeconomic Framework (Population, GDP, GRDP) 3) Traffic Demand Forecast (Target year 2025) 4) Confirmation of Economic Feasibility 5) Economic Impacts of the Padma Bridge ) Improvement of Accessibility 2) Regional Economic Development 3) Formation of International Road Network Summary of Comparisons of Two Sites from traffic and Economic Point of View Evaluation Criteria| Paturia-Goalundo| Mawa-Janjira| Traffic Demand (2025)| 19,850 vehicles/day| 41,550 vehicles/day| Economic Feasibility| EIRR=9. 6%| EIRR=16. 9%| Financial Project Cost (Million US$)| 1,26 0| 1,074| Improvement of Accessibility| (Travel time) Dhaka ââ¬â Mongla Dhaka ââ¬â Benapole (Beneficiary Population) Within 3 hours from Dhaka Within 4 hours from Dhaka| 4. 5 hours 4. 6 hours ,791,000 (9%) 12,738,000 (42%)| 3. 6 hours 3. 6 hours 10,417,000 (35%) 22,247,000 (74%)| Density of Feeder Roads| No big difference| Formation of International Road Network| | Asian Highway A-1. Short distance to Benapole Land Port and Mongla Sea Port| Regional Economic Development| GDP of Southwest region will increase by 18% (1. 2% /year)| GDP of Southwest region will increase by 35% (2. 3% /year)| Growth centers around the bridge sites| No big difference| Indicative Cost Paturia ââ¬â Goalundo| Mawa ââ¬â Janjira| US$ 1,260 million| US$ 1,074 million| Evaluation of P-G & M-J sites Evaluation Criteria | Paturia ââ¬â Goalundo| Mawa ââ¬â Janjira| Economic Feasibility| EIRR| 9. 6%| 16. 9%| B/C Ratio| 0. 71| 1. 81| | NPV (Mil. Taka)| -9,857| 23,140| | Regional Development| Increase of GRDP of Southwest Region| 18% up (1. 2% per year)| 35% up (2. 3% per year)| Environmental Impact| Result of IEE| No big difference| Social impact and Resettlement Issues| Households requiring relocation| 1,842| 2,635| Community structures affected| 18| 60 `| | Total population affected (both direct and indirect)| 40,000-45,000| 70,000-80,000| Preliminary RAP cost| 23. 7 mil. US$| 38. 79 mil. US$| Traffic Demand Forecast of the Padma Bridge | Traffic Volumes across PadmaRiver (both ways 2003: From Traffic Survey)| | Paturia-Goalundo| Mawa-Jajira| Cross-Padma| Light Vehicle| 572| 128| 700| Bus| 687| 227| 914| Truck| 1,217| 78| 1,295| Total| 2,476| 433| 2,909| Launch Passenger| 15,559| 9,126| 24,685| Present Traffic Movement Pattern At present, traffic at Mawa is lower than Paturia due to the following reasons: 1) à Road condition of NH 8 is now very poor. 2) à A narrow approach road to the Mawa ghat. 3) à Quality of ferry services at Mawa is lower than Paturia in general. ) à No sufficient parking space for trucks. 5) à Two hour river crossing time at Mawa is significantly longer than 35 minutes of Paturia. Future Traffic Movement Pattern Future traffic movement pattern will be drastically changed if the Padma Bridge is constructed at Mawa with following reasons: 1) à Improvement of NH 8 (Dhaka ââ¬â Khulna Road Project by ADB) will be completed by the end of 2004. 2) à Direct road link from Dhaka for the largest traffic demands to Khulna and Jcssore. 3) à Elimination of two hour crossing time. Criteria for Final Site Selection Preliminary results shows greater impacts In Mawa-Janjira over Paturia siteà Site selection should be more on technical ââ¬â engineering grounds-future safety of the bridge infrastructureà Major Impacts of the project ââ¬â Irrespective of à sitesà Selection of Final site Is critical to set the next agenda preparation of RAPà Task would be to minimize Impact, develop Improved policy for mitigation of adverse Impacts, management and capacity building for resettlement managementà Experience of the Jamuna and other donor-funded projects will be used In the planning and Implementation of RAP for Padma . CONCLUSION The Padma multipurpose bridge is a long cherished dream of the people of the entire southern region. The bridge will link the greater Khulna, Greater Faridpoor and Greater Barisal region with the rest of the country. It will give tremendous boost to national economy as the direct driving travel distance between Dhaka and this region will be greatly redu ced and hustles and harassment people face in moving tradeable commodities to and from this region will be removed. The agro rich region of Barisal and Khulna can feed the rest of the country much easily. Mongla port can make greater contribution. Tourism industry in the picturesque mangrove forest Sundarban and marvellous sea resort Kuakata will get massive boost. Nepal, Bhutan and 7 sisters around Bangladesh may utilise this bridge to use Mongla port which will give our economy a massive shot in the arm. Padma Bridge Padma Bridge Padma Multipurpose Bridge Carries| Motor vehicles, Railway| Crosses| Padma River| Locale| Louhajong, Munshiganj to Shariatpur and Madaripur,à Bangladesh| Maintained by| Bangladesh Bridge Authority| Designer| Maunsell AECOM| Design| Truss bridge| Material| Steel| Total length| 6,150à m (20,180 ft)| Width| 21. 10à m (69. 2à ft)| The Padma Bridge is a multipurpose road-rail bridge across the Padma River to be constructed in Bangladesh. When completed it will be the largest bridge in Bangladesh and the first fixed river crossing for road traffic.It will connect Louhajong, Munshiganj to Shariatpur and Madaripur, linking the south-west of the country, to northern and eastern regions. The project covers three districts ââ¬â Munshiganj (Mawa Point/North bank), Shariatpur and Madaripur (Janjira/South bank). The total area of land to be acquired and required for its components is 918 hectares. The requisition of land for the construction yard will be for six years on a rental basis. As per the new design, an additional 144. 04 ha has been identified for acquisition, bringing the total to 1062. 14 hectares. Similar essay: Padma Bridge ParagraphThis additional land is required because project site lost significant land due to erosion, for transition structures and due to a change in railway alignment. The two-level steel truss bridge will carry a four-lane highway on the upper level and a single track railway on a lower level. The project will include 6. 15à km long and 21. 10 m wide bridge,15. 1à km of approach roads, toll plazas and service area. Previous Source of Financing Project cost is estimated to be US$3. 00 billion. Funding for the project is provided by the Asian Development Bank (US$615 m), the World Bank ($1. billion), Japan International Cooperation Agency ($415 m), Islamic Development Bank ($140 m). The government also signed another $14. 84 million agreement with the IDB for the implementation of the water-supply and sanitation project in cyclone-prone coastal areas, and Abu Dhabi Development Group ($30 m). Of the total amount, the government will provide Tk 50 millio n while the rest will come in the form of project aid. The Bangladesh Bridge Authority (BBA) invited the pre-qualification tender for the project in April 2010. Construction of the bridge was expected to commence by early 2011 and be ready for major completion in 2013 (and complete all sections by late 2015). The proposed Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project will provide direct connectivity between the central and southwestern part of the country through a fixed link on the Padma River at Mawa-Janjira points. The bridge will contribute significantly towards facilitating the social, economic and industrial development of this relatively underdeveloped region with a population of over 30 million.The area of influence of the direct benefit of the project is about 44,000à km2 or 29% of the total area of Bangladesh. Therefore, the project is viewed as very important infrastructure towards improving the transportation network and regional economic development of the country. The bridge has provisions for rail, gas, electric line and fibre optic cable for future expansion. The project will be co-financed by the government of Bangladesh, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the Islamic Development Bank.The Bangladesh Bridge Authority is the executing agency of the project. Padma Bridge financing vs. word-of-mouth strategy THE Padma Bridge is a high priority national project of the Awami League government. It is a 6. 15-kilometre long and 21. 10-metre wide bridge with 15. 1-kilometre approach roads to connect the south-western districts with the capital. It will be a very important infrastructure for economic development of more than 30 million people. The construction work of the $2. 9 billion project was expected to begin in 2012 with financial assistance of the World Bank ($1. billion), the Asian Development Bank ($615 million), the Japan International Cooperation Agency ($400 million) and the Islamic Devel opment Bank ($140 million). The government is a co-financer that has already spent Tkà 15 billion on land acquisition and rehabilitation projects. However, the construction work became uncertain when the World Bank suspended its $1. 2 billion credit line last year alleging corruption conspiracy against Bangladeshi officials and executives of a Canadian firm. Considering the uncertainty of the World Bank financing, the government looked for an alternative source and almost confirmed a $2. billion Malaysian fund. Meanwhile, the bank, after almost one year of unsuccessful dealings, cancelled the agreement on June 29. It was usual for the ministers and high officials to react against the bankââ¬â¢s accusation. However, the government standing was ambiguous when the finance minister kept the World Bank chapter open to get the decision reviewed. An alternative deal with a Malaysian company went out of the frame when the prime minister announced that the bridge would be built with dom estic fund, eight days after the World Bank decision.Meanwhile, the word-of-mouth strategy in political game became dominant to whip up nationalistic sentiments. Moreover, come business organisations congratulated the prime minister, advertising their commitment to investing in the project. Padma Bridge with Own Fund The government will build the Padma bridge with its own funds and construction work will begin in the current fiscal year, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina announced in parliament. She said the mega project, estimated to cost around Tk 23,000 crore, would be completed within fiscal year 2015-16.The prime minister was delivering her concluding speech in the budget session of the House, which was prorogued last evening. She urged the global lenders not to put up ââ¬Å"unnecessary obstaclesâ⬠to Bangladesh's development efforts. Hasina's announcement came nine days after the World Bank pulled out of the bridge project, citing a corruption conspiracy. In her address, she sketched out how her government would arrange the money for the project from various sources.Terming ââ¬Å"unprecedentedâ⬠the response she had received from people in the last few days in support of the government's plan for building the bridge with local resources, Hasina said she was overwhelmed by the way they had expressed their enthusiasm. She added: ââ¬Å"We will not bow to anybody. We can in no way accept the huge damage the World Bank has done to Bangladesh on lame excuses. No Bangalee can accept the allegation of corruption by the World Bank when not a single penny was released for the project. Criticising the WB for delaying her government's move to build the bridge, she said, ââ¬Å"The construction cost has increased due to the delay. I will ask the finance minister to seek compensation from the World Bank. â⬠Hasina also accused the global lender of instigating other lending agencies, including the Asian Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank and Jica, not to provide funds for the Padma bridge project. HOW TO RAISE FUNDS The premier said the government had lately estimated the construction cost of the bridge on a year-to-year basis.According to the estimate, Tk 3,197 crore will be needed in the current fiscal year, Tk 7,868 crore in 2013-14, Tk 7,786 crore in 2014-15 and Tk 3,785 crore in 2015-16 to complete the project. Citing the allocation of Tk 55,000 crore in the ADP for this fiscal year, Hasina said she had already discussed the matter with some ministries, and they had said they would not take their entire allocations in the current year's budget. ââ¬Å"It is possible to save Tk 24,000 crore from the ADP. For this, we will have to be economical and may have to cut some development work under different ministries.But again, construction of the Padma bridge is also development work and will generate employment for many,â⬠she said. The government would be able to begin the construction work soon, and will not waste any more time. The prime minister said the government had earmarked Tk 1,500 crore for infrastructure development and Tk 3,000 crore in the public-private partnership fund. Besides, a certain amount of money had been allocated for the Padma bridge in the budget. The government had also decided to issue sovereign bonds to collect $750 million.Besides, her government might levy a surcharge as was done for the construction of the Jamuna bridge. ââ¬Å"We will also welcome any foreign investment in this project,â⬠she added. Giving a breakdown of the Padma bridge costs, Hasina said Tk 15,000 crore would be spent for construction of the main portion of the bridge; Tk 7,200 crore for river training; Tk 1,281 crore for building Jajira approach road; and Tk 310 crore for Mawa approach road. She said her government had already spent Tk 1, 500 crore on land acquisition and rehabilitation purposes. The Consequent Impact of Constructing Padma Bridge in Own FundBe that as it may, the question i s whether the prime ministerââ¬â¢s plan to construct the Padma Bridge without external finance is realistic. According to the estimates, Tkà 32 billion will be needed in 2012-13, Tkà 79 billion in 2013-14, Tkà 78 billion in 2014-15 and Tkà 38 billion in 2015-16. The current yearââ¬â¢s requirement, as announced, will be redirected from the annual development programme. The government also plans to issue sovereign bonds to collect $750 million and other accumulations will be defined in future. However, mobilisation of domestic resources has hardly been impressive in the past.Regardless of the government rhetoric, the public-private partnership has not yet taken off although Tkà 30 billion was allocated three years ago. In such circumstances, if the government continues to redirect funds from the ADP for the Padma Bridge, other projects will certainly be crowded out. The government is already reeling under high subsidy burden and inadequate allocation for its thrust sec tors. Although the inflow of remittance has kept foreign exchange reserve adequate, foreign aid for public projects has dwindled over the years. As such, receipt of foreign direct investment is much needed.In fact, did we not welcome the World Bankââ¬â¢s credit line for the Padma bridge project? Was it not highlighted in the news media? Amidst the raging global economic crisis, the government needs to realise the necessity of the soft loan from the World Bank. It needs to also have a closer looks at the countryââ¬â¢s institutional capacity to finance such a colossal project without import of materials and without a foreign company. We might be able to prove our national capacity bypassing the World Bank, but the domestic financing for the project is highly likely to have some negative impacts on the economy.The additional outflow of foreign currency for import of materials will raise the price of dollar for which the estimated cost of Tkà 230 billion is expected to increase to up to Tkà 300 billion. Moreover, fund accumulation from non-residents may not be steady because of downtrend in the current account balance. The current account balance, which was 3. 7 per cent of the gross domestic product in 2009-10 and is projected to decrease to 0. 3 per cent of the GDP in 2012-13, could slide to a negative value.On the other hand, devaluation of the local currency will raise the price of imported products and will contribute to inflation. In addition, it will continue to provide additional tax burden on the taxpayers. In this context, the governmentââ¬â¢s strategy to enrich domestic capacity needs to be complemented with a friendly compliance strategy to handle donors and foreign investors. It is reported that the Anti-Corruption Commission failed to comply with the World Bankââ¬â¢s requirement due to its limitation with domestic policy.However, what was the limitation for the ministers to control corruption of their personal secretary or officials. If and when domestic resources will be allocated for the multi-billion dollar project, will the designated officials and implementing agents hesitate to divert billions of taka to their personal accounts? Ultimately, the government needs to address the corruption-related problem first and foremost. To this end, mere assertions of commitment will not be enough; they have to be complemented with decisive and demonstrative actions.Meanwhile, people will look forward to the dream of Padma Bridge coming to reality. So, in shortly if we summarized all the disadvantages of own funding for Padma Bridge, we could get:- * Mobilization of domestic resources is not impressive in our country, so there must be a huge need of importing resources. * We would need more Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), because foreign exchange is not adequate in Bangladesh. * Domestic funding would prove costly for the economy in the long run. * The additional outflow of foreign currency for import of materials will raise the price of dollar. Fund accumulation from non-residents may not be steady because of downtrend in the current account balance. * Devaluation of the local currency will raise the price of imported products and will contribute to inflation. We should not build the Padma Bridge just for the sake of building it. It has to be cost-effective, financially viable and above all economically rewarding. All of these depend on minimisation of direct and indirect costs of building the bridge with domestic finance as contemplated by the government.The first and foremost issue in this context is to be fully aware of the possible risks and costs involved in domestic financing, and find a way out to minimise them before starting the construction work. What are the possible risks that may escalate both direct and indirect costs of building the bridge with domestic funding? First comes the direct resource cost, which was estimated to be around US$ 3. 0 billion or nearly Tk 24,500 crore. Since the decision was taken to build the bridge on the basis of the feasibility study carried out by an independent agency, it can be assumed that it was found cost effective.The main indirect cost will be the impact on other economic activities and the balance of payments as a result of diverting resources, both in terms of local and foreign currency. Economists have already expressed their concern about these indirect costs. Although the private sector cannot grow adequately if the infrastructural inadequacies are not removed, they will not build infrastructure on their own as its benefit cannot be fully internalised and priced properly to recover the cost. This is what the economists call the market failure, which shifts the onus on the government.In principle, there is nothing wrong in diverting resources to build infrastructure by government which will ultimately help the private sector. The main point is to keep diversion of resources within tolerable limits so that it will not hur t the private sector significantly by squeezing the resources available to them. In the absence of sufficient sources for revenue earning, the government will have to borrow money from the banking sector to finance the bridge, limiting the resources available for the private sector to borrow from, which the economists call ââ¬Ëcrowding out effect. It will also increase the interest rate raising the cost of credit for the private sector. The size of government borrowings and the extent of private sector's reliance on the banking sector will determine the actual crowding out effect. Another potential indirect effect of government borrowings may work through the stock market. When the banks are faced with liquidity crisis to give loans to the private sector, they may decide to withdraw from the stock market causing another nose-dive of stock price, which has just started bottoming up after a major debacle.How government borrowing affects overall growth in a developing country, where the private sector is always constrained by infrastructural constraints, and government is the sole provider of infrastructure, is an empirical question. Unfortunately, this issue is not adequately researched in Bangladesh. There is only one study carried out by Bangladesh Bank a couple of years ago, which shows that private investment in Bangladesh is not affected significantly by rising interest rates. This finding makes it difficult to guesstimate crowding out effects of government borrowing in Bangladesh.Moreover, 6. 3 per cent GDP growth in the last fiscal in the midst of hue and cry about the crowding out effect does not provide any clear indication of how significantly government borrowing affects overall growth in the country. Yet, the government cannot and should not completely shrug-off the likely effects of its domestic borrowing. It should leave no stone unturned to keep its borrowing from domestic sources as low as possible. It should rethink a new strategy to keep the yearly requirement of resources to meet the cost at a tolerable level.One way of doing it would be to extend the construction period to five years from three years as currently envisioned. The total cost of Padma Bridge will have both local and foreign components; the former would require local currency, and the latter foreign currency. Let us review and compare the yearly requirement of taka and US dollar under different scenarios. No clear public information is available on the relative share of these two components. According to an expert, foreign component is about 40 per cent of the total cost.That means the government would need approximately US$1. 2 billion and Tk 148. 50 billion to construct the bridge, if the total cost is $3. 0 billion as originally estimated. Let us increase these amounts by 10 per cent, to $1. 32 billion and Tk 160. 38 billion, to account for inflation (as the start of the construction work has been delayed by more than a year. ) With this upward adjust ment, the yearly requirement in local currency will be about Tk 32. 08 billion if the bridge is constructed in five years. This amount will increase to Tk 53. 6 billion, if the bridge is constructed in three years. Similarly, the yearly requirement in foreign currency will be US$264 million if the construction period is five years, US$440 million in case of three years. If the total cost is equally divided between local and foreign components, yearly requirement will be Tk 44. 55 billion, if the bridge is constructed in three years and Tk 26. 73 billion in case of five years. Similarly, under this alternative scenario, yearly requirement will be US$550 million and $330 million respectably.Yearly requirements of taka and US dollar under different scenarios are shown in the table. As can be seen, yearly requirement of taka under any scenario does not exceed Tk 53. 46 billion. This should not be a very big problem to collect this money without any significant crowding effect in the eco nomy to negatively affect the growth. Also, even if there is some level of crowding out effect, part of it will be compensated by the multiplier effect of government spending in the construction of the bridge.Some adjustments in the annual development programmes (which always involve some inefficient and politically motivated projects) will also help reduce the negative effects on resource diversion. Besides, compromise with some level of growth in the construction phase of the Bridge which will foster regional equity and growth (as evidenced from Banghabandhu Bridge) will not be entirely unjustifiable from economic point of view. Inter-temporal optimisation of benefits always includes some trade-off between present and future benefits.The main problem that may become a concern is the availability of US dollar to finance the foreign component of the cost. The government has already expressed its optimism to be able to face this problem by using the forex reserve, which is currently in robust shape. However, this robustness may not sustain given the volatility of the global economy as well as ourà export and import scenario. However, continued growth of remittances in the recent years is a plus point for the country.Yet, to minimise the risk of any probable foreign currency crisis and reduce pressure on the balance of payment, it will be prudent to extend the construction period of the bridge to five years, which will keep the yearly need of US dollar at a level of about $330 million. It is not easy for a developing and growing economy, which constantly operates under a stringent resource frontier, to invest in a huge infrastructure project like that of the Padma bridge. But the above numbers suggest that constructing the bridge in five years with domestic financing is very much doable contradicting the apprehension expressed by many. The End
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